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Mr Simone Mancini

Physics-based Forecasting of Earthquake Sequences (Supervisor: Dr Max Werner)

My research covers the development of testable short-term earthquake forecast models that describe the spatiotemporal evolution of seismic sequences. Earthquake forecasting is a trending topic of research both as a potential tool for more informed decision making during early post-disaster phases (e.g. for civil protection purposes) and as a testing ground for different hypotheses on which mechanisms drive earthquake triggering and cascading. I particularly focus on the improvement of physics-based and empirical forecasts performance, which I evaluate by means of standard statistical metrics in both pseudo-prospective and retrospective mode.

Research keywords

  • Short-term earthquake forecasting
  • Earthquake triggering
  • Statistical seismology