Predicting the future: the role of past performance in determining trends in institutional effectiveness at A level

Authors
Gray, J., Goldstein, H. and Thomas S.
Year
2001
Journal
British Educational Research Journal, 19:24, 3417-3432
DOI
10.1080/01411920125622
Abstract

The analysis demonstrates that the average A/AS level results secured by English institutions from year to year are very stable. When account is taken of intake characteristics, however, correlations decrease substantially. The results show that predicting future 'value added' performance from past trends is unreliable. The implications of these findings for notions of 'continuous improvement' are discussed as well as their consequences for further research on institutional improvement.

Number of levels
3
Model data structure
Response types
Multivariate response model?
No
Longitudinal data?
Yes
Substantive discipline
Impact

Key paper showing limitations of using shool effectiveness estimates for predicting future performance.

Paper submitted by
Harvey Goldstein, Graduate School of Education, University of Bristol, h.goldstein@bristol.ac.uk
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