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Publication - Dr Alan Baird

    Real time imaging, forecasting and management of human-induced seismicity at Preston New Road, Lancashire, England

    Citation

    Clarke, H, Verdon, J, Kettlety, T, Baird, A & Kendall, JM, 2019, ‘Real time imaging, forecasting and management of human-induced seismicity at Preston New Road, Lancashire, England’. Seismological Research Letters.

    Abstract

    Earthquakes induced by subsurface fluid injection pose a significant issue across a range of industries. Debate continues as to the most effective methods to mitigate the resulting seismic hazard. Observations of induced seismicity indicate that the rate of seismicity scales with the injection volume, and that events follow the Gutenberg-Richter distribution. These two inferences permit us to populate statistical models of the seismicity, and extrapolate them to make forecasts of the expected event magnitudes as injection continues. Here we describe a shale gas site where this approach was used in real time to make operational decisions during hydraulic fracturing operations. Microseismic observations revealed the intersection between hydraulic fracturing and a pre-existing fault or fracture network that became seismically active. While “red light” events, requiring a pause to the injection program, occurred on several occasions, the observed event magnitudes fell within expected levels based on the extrapolated statistical models, and the levels of seismicity remained within acceptable limits as defined by the regulator. To date, induced seismicity has typically been regulated using retroactive Traffic Light Schemes. This study shows that the use of high quality microseismic observations to populate statistical models that forecast expected event magnitudes can provide a more effective approach.

    Full details in the University publications repository